Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 03 2021 | 10637 | 45852 | 338 | 98 | 287 | 460 |
| February 04 2021 | 10672 | 45956 | 340 | 98 | 302 | 439 |
| February 05 2021 | 10707 | 46044 | 341 | 101 | 318 | 436 |
| February 06 2021 | 10743 | 46121 | 342 | 101 | 289 | 432 |
| February 07 2021 | 10767 | 46180 | 343 | 101 | 292 | 417 |
| February 08 2021 | 10782 | 46255 | 343 | 101 | 284 | 412 |
| February 09 2021 | 10788 | 46377 | 344 | 104 | 258 | 399 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 2.4 | 7.4% | 19 | 0.17% | 31 | 0.27% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 2.3 | 12.4% | 32 | 0.24% | 50 | 0.37% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 8.0 | 29.5% | 76 | 0.36% | 101 | 0.48% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 3.7 | 14% | 36 | 0.26% | 54 | 0.4% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 3.0 | 11.2% | 29 | 0.28% | 55 | 0.53% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 2.3 | 7.4% | 19 | 0.15% | 36 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | -1 | 2.0 | 6.6% | 17 | 0.15% | 34 | 0.3% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.6 | 11.6% | 30 | 0.29% | 38 | 0.36% |
| All ages | 6 | 27.3 | 100% | 258 | 0.25% | 399 | 0.38% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 03 2021 | 6863 | 27042 | 207 | 83 | 182 | 303 |
| February 04 2021 | 6871 | 27099 | 208 | 84 | 178 | 272 |
| February 05 2021 | 6888 | 27146 | 209 | 84 | 178 | 246 |
| February 06 2021 | 6902 | 27191 | 209 | 86 | 165 | 245 |
| February 07 2021 | 6910 | 27245 | 210 | 86 | 141 | 229 |
| February 08 2021 | 6917 | 27274 | 211 | 86 | 130 | 224 |
| February 09 2021 | 6922 | 27317 | 212 | 86 | 121 | 212 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.6 | 5.8% | 7 | 0.09% | 15 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 2.4 | 17.4% | 21 | 0.25% | 30 | 0.36% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.6 | 14.9% | 18 | 0.25% | 30 | 0.42% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.9 | 8.3% | 10 | 0.12% | 32 | 0.38% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 2.1 | 15.7% | 19 | 0.24% | 27 | 0.35% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.4 | 18.2% | 22 | 0.23% | 36 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.4 | 9.1% | 11 | 0.13% | 18 | 0.21% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.3 | 10.7% | 13 | 0.18% | 24 | 0.34% |
| All ages | 5 | 12.7 | 100% | 121 | 0.19% | 212 | 0.33% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 03 2021 | 5147 | 18055 | 217 | 71 | 123 | 218 |
| February 04 2021 | 5163 | 18101 | 218 | 72 | 127 | 213 |
| February 05 2021 | 5179 | 18131 | 221 | 73 | 136 | 195 |
| February 06 2021 | 5183 | 18154 | 220 | 72 | 124 | 177 |
| February 07 2021 | 5188 | 18177 | 221 | 72 | 101 | 164 |
| February 08 2021 | 5192 | 18195 | 221 | 72 | 84 | 156 |
| February 09 2021 | 5195 | 18209 | 223 | 73 | 73 | 152 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.6 | 5.5% | 4 | 0.07% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 1.1 | 12.3% | 9 | 0.17% | 22 | 0.41% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.4 | 15.1% | 11 | 0.24% | 21 | 0.46% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.9 | 9.6% | 7 | 0.13% | 14 | 0.26% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.6 | 11% | 8 | 0.16% | 20 | 0.4% |
| 50-59 | -1 | 1.1 | 15.1% | 11 | 0.16% | 25 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.1 | 15.1% | 11 | 0.17% | 21 | 0.33% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.7 | 16.4% | 12 | 0.19% | 21 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 3 | 8.6 | 100% | 73 | 0.16% | 152 | 0.34% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 03 2021 | 11815 | 49522 | 340 | 74 | 516 | 652 |
| February 04 2021 | 11843 | 49643 | 341 | 74 | 461 | 650 |
| February 05 2021 | 11869 | 49775 | 341 | 74 | 452 | 652 |
| February 06 2021 | 11893 | 49892 | 342 | 74 | 435 | 614 |
| February 07 2021 | 11905 | 49965 | 341 | 74 | 402 | 606 |
| February 08 2021 | 11918 | 50045 | 341 | 74 | 271 | 536 |
| February 09 2021 | 11945 | 50154 | 343 | 75 | 258 | 528 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.1 | 6.2% | 16 | 0.14% | 31 | 0.26% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 4.0 | 14.7% | 38 | 0.23% | 92 | 0.56% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 6.1 | 19.8% | 51 | 0.24% | 129 | 0.61% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 4.1 | 19% | 49 | 0.36% | 83 | 0.61% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 3.1 | 12.8% | 33 | 0.24% | 60 | 0.44% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 2.6 | 10.5% | 27 | 0.19% | 56 | 0.39% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.0 | 10.1% | 26 | 0.18% | 45 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.3 | 7% | 18 | 0.14% | 32 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 27 | 24.4 | 100% | 258 | 0.22% | 528 | 0.45% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 03 2021 | 38164 | 313016 | 1162 | 251 | 971 | 1575 |
| February 04 2021 | 38372 | 313667 | 1162 | 256 | 1087 | 1626 |
| February 05 2021 | 38487 | 314043 | 1162 | 256 | 1135 | 1543 |
| February 06 2021 | 38588 | 314338 | 1168 | 256 | 1192 | 1510 |
| February 07 2021 | 38669 | 314788 | 1172 | 256 | 1069 | 1476 |
| February 08 2021 | 38768 | 315252 | 1176 | 256 | 1061 | 1483 |
| February 09 2021 | 38807 | 315494 | 1181 | 264 | 959 | 1455 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 4.1 | 4.3% | 41 | 0.07% | 70 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 27.6 | 24.1% | 231 | 0.33% | 311 | 0.44% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 31.9 | 31% | 297 | 0.29% | 458 | 0.44% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 11.4 | 11.5% | 110 | 0.14% | 168 | 0.22% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 9.3 | 9% | 86 | 0.13% | 152 | 0.23% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 10.4 | 10.5% | 101 | 0.15% | 166 | 0.25% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 3.7 | 5.4% | 52 | 0.1% | 76 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 3 | 4.7 | 4.3% | 41 | 0.08% | 54 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 39 | 103.1 | 100% | 959 | 0.18% | 1455 | 0.27% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 03 2021 | 545437 | 2517446 | 24554 | 5951 | 12466 | 19513 |
| February 04 2021 | 546955 | 2523102 | 24634 | 5992 | 13038 | 18854 |
| February 05 2021 | 548221 | 2527562 | 24734 | 6020 | 13003 | 18050 |
| February 06 2021 | 549155 | 2531066 | 24824 | 6052 | 12609 | 17303 |
| February 07 2021 | 549826 | 2534922 | 24885 | 6054 | 11478 | 16855 |
| February 08 2021 | 550369 | 2538097 | 24919 | 6055 | 10454 | 16452 |
| February 09 2021 | 551050 | 2541584 | 25021 | 6094 | 9642 | 15832 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 35 | 59.3 | 6.3% | 608 | 0.09% | 993 | 0.16% |
| 10-19 | 84 | 143.6 | 14.3% | 1382 | 0.18% | 2215 | 0.29% |
| 20-29 | 108 | 156.4 | 16% | 1546 | 0.2% | 2530 | 0.33% |
| 30-39 | 96 | 138.3 | 14.4% | 1389 | 0.18% | 2272 | 0.3% |
| 40-49 | 83 | 129.9 | 13.4% | 1293 | 0.19% | 2222 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 114 | 139.0 | 14.3% | 1382 | 0.17% | 2256 | 0.28% |
| 60-69 | 79 | 108.3 | 11.2% | 1080 | 0.14% | 1758 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 82 | 95.3 | 10% | 962 | 0.15% | 1586 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 681 | 970.0 | 100% | 9642 | 0.17% | 15832 | 0.27% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38.1 | 36.8 | 48.3 | 27.3 | 32.4 | 24.8% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32.8 | 12.7 | 20.7 | 20.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33.6 | 8.6 | 17.7 | 22.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44.7 | 55.6 | 60.6 | 24.4 | 61.4 | 17.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.6 | 43.8 | 44.1 | 103.1 | 109 | 21.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.2 | 29.3 | 33.4 | 970 | 1392 | 19.1% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.62 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-02 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5198"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges